Veterans' Unemployment Down in June

Veterans' unemployment continued to decline in June, to
5.4 percent from 6.3 percent in June 2013.  Reasons could
include better economy, or retirement, or job-search
discouragement. 

Veterans' unemployment has declined over all to 5.4 percent in June 2014 from 6.3 percent in the same month a year earlier, according to the latest BLS.gov report this morning (a day early because of the Independence Day holiday).

This is a significant drop from the 7.0 percent unemployment reported in 2012.

Unemployment among female veterans, 7.5 percent, is higher than among male veterans, 5.1 percent.

Unemployment among female veterans also declined by less, only 0.1 percentage point (from 7.6 percent in June 2013), compared with 1.0 percentage point for male veterans (from 6.1 percent).

There were 10.04 million employed veterans in June 2014, of which 8.77 million were males and 1.27 million were females.

A substantially higher percentage of female veterans to the population were working, 56.5 percent, than male veterans, 46.3 percent.

Employment among veterans of Gulf War Eras I and II has risen during the last year. At the same time, veterans of the Vietnam War, Korean War and World War II eras are dropping out of the labor force and are no longer looking for work (and are therefore not counted as unemployed).

My own estimate, based on 2012 veteran mortality data, is that of the 16 million Americans who served in World War II, only about 8,000 (one out of 2,000) are expected to survive the year 2014.

JOBS | Youth Unemployment

Although not as high as European rates of >50%, the USA suffers from

17% unemployment among young people. Chart by Atlantic Cities.

Before she discovered that the United States was tapping her phone and emails, German chancellor Angela Merkel rated youth unemployment as "the biggest crisis facing Europe."

In Britain, nearly 1 million young people are jobless. The talk in the UK is of a "lost generation" of workers, as lack of jobs creates mental health problems in this age cohort.

The nonprofit MindFull says that 850,000 UK children, one-third of the age group, suffers from a mental health problems and many more suffer from anxiety and depression. Mental health problems represent the largest single cause of disability in the UK, 23 percent of the NHS burden.

Yet the NHS is spending only 1 percent of its budget addressing the causes of mental health problems, according to a member of Parliament, Nicky Morgan. The main concerns of young people in the UK are school stresses (54 percent), worrying about the future (53 percent), and feeling inadequate (52 percent).

Are Older Workers Crowding Out Younger Ones? In General, No

Like Europe, the United States has high unemployment among its young people. At the same time, with the asset meltdown in 2008, baby boomers who expected to retire at 60 or 62 have stayed on to keep working past 65. They can't afford to retire.

The United States ranks third in the world for hiring over-65 workers, after Japan and Singapore. There is no maximum age for retirement. The persistence of older workers in their jobs has been cited as a reason for high unemployment among youth. Some employers are concerned about the lack of intake of younger people and offer "buyout" arrangements -- for example, extra credit toward retirement -- to encourage elderly workers to retire so that more younger workers can be recruited.

However, is the retaining of older workers really the reason for high unemployment of younger workers? Not according to a study cited by the UK Parliament. No evidence was found that older workers who stay on the job longer squeeze out opportunities for younger employees. The Center for Retirement Research (CRR) at Boston College says that there may be situations where older employees crowd out younger workers in some companies or areas, but not across the workforce at large. The report examined employment and unemployment rates, wages, and hours worked in all 50 states over time (1977-2011) for three different age groups: 20-24 ("young"), 25-54 ("prime-aged"), and 55-64 ("old"). There was a wide variation among the states in all measures.

If older workers were hampering the prospects of younger ones, states with higher employment or wages among older workers would also lead to higher unemployment or lower wages among younger workers. But it wasn't so. The report also looked at levels of employment both before and during the Great Recession and found:

• No support for the idea that the Recession changed the relative opportunities for younger and older workers. 
• Evidence that the Great Recession did affect overall unemployment rates and wages, but no support for the idea that employment among older workers affected opportunities for younger workers.
• Employment among younger workers was instead influenced by their education and skill levels, and by whether these workers were employed in the service or manufacturing industries. 
• Younger workers may have needed to migrate to job opportunities in new locations or industries, particularly as the Great Recession ended many manufacturing jobs.

Why Employment Moves Together among Young and Old

It makes sense that having elderly people work as long as they can may be good for the country and region, and for young people. If workers stay on in the workforce, it:

• Reduces the burden on pension systems, many of which are underfunded. 
• Makes it more likely that consumption and therefore the economy will remain strong. 
• Helps retain jobs that would be lost if older people who are successful at what they do and know how to serve their customers stop working. 
• Enables entrepreneurial older people to generate ideas that result in hiring of more young people as trainees and partners.

Work at the two ends of the spectrum are not substitutes, they are complements.

In planning for a transition to the private sector, older veterans need to be aware that some large companies have a pyramid structure that makes it difficult to join them after a certain age. A service member facing discharge needs to have in mind a number of options, including self-employment, as backup in case a job search meets obstacles.

Implications for Veterans

The implications of the data and research for veterans is as follows:

• Within the military, as the pyramid structure thins out, there is an automatic reduction in force of older service members.
• For veterans with skills readily transferable to the private sector, being older should not be a handicap.
• Some veterans may need training in entrepreneurship, which some equate to studying a foreign language.
• Families of veterans must also prepare for the changes that occur with a new career.

Jobs for Military Spouses - We Need Better Data

 

Worrying about the active-duty
spouse's survival should be enough
without financial stress as well.

Employment of Military Spouses -- Why We Need to Know

Spouses of military on active duty are likely to have trouble obtaining and keeping jobs for at least three reasons:

1. A lack of private-sector depth around military bases, which tend to be located where land is less expensive.
2. Uncertainty of the length of time the family will be at the base.
3. The problems of child care when the active-duty spouse is posted abroad or even in a different part of the United States.

So military spouses have difficulty finding and holding on to a job for reasons that are related to the unpredictability of the active-duty partner have implications for the importance of child-care availability on military bases and also for decisions about appropriate pay levels for military personnel when it is likely that the spouse will be unable to earn a second income.

Don't forget Army Dads -- some who serve
are women, and their spouses care for the kids.

Similarly, spouses of veterans have difficulties upon the discharge of the active-duty partner because re-entering civilian life may be a major adjustment for both partners. The military services try to help active-duty personnel look for work. Since family income depends on both parents, what are the obstacles to veterans and their spouses finding work? Answering this question in some detail is important for the development of policies for helping military families after the person on active duty is discharged.

Data on the Job Status of Spouses of Active-Duty Personnel and Veterans Are Not Current

Up-to-date monthly information on unemployment is collected for the Bureau of Labor Statistics by the Census Bureau through a sample, the Current Population Survey, which covers only 70,000 civilian households. Only veterans are included, not active-duty personnel. Some military spouses are included in the sample -- but they are a small and unrepresentative sample because military spouses on bases in the United States and overseas are not included.

The best thank-you is help making
it work economically.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics produces estimates of veteran employment, but not active-duty employment.

For this reason, labor force data on military spouses tend to be one-shot studies that are only briefly up to date.Information that is available on employment of military spouses comes from three main sources:

1. Active-Duty Surveys by the DoD. Surveys by the DoD cover only spouses of active-duty service members. Examples: Military Family Life Project, the Status of Forces Survey of Active-Duty Members, and the Survey of Active Duty Spouses. DoD's most recent summary of such data can be found in the Active Duty Families section (pp. 113-34) of the 2011 Demographics Report. 

2.  The VA's National Survey of Veterans (NSV). The most recent NSV Report is for 2010. See the Veteran Spouses, Active Duty Spouses, and Surviving Spouses section (pp. 279-309) of the report for spouse employment data. The VA collects data primarily on spouses of veterans. 

3. BLS and Census Data. The Current Population Survey (CPS) includes unemployment data collected by the Census Bureau on behalf of the Bureau of Labor Statistics - but it is a sample of about 70,000 households nationally and excludes representation of active-duty personnel, focused only on civilians, who of course include veterans; in recent years veterans have been separately identified by period of service. The American Community Survey (ACS), also conducted by the Census Bureau, updates the centennial Census and is more comprehensive, including active-duty personnel as well as veterans. But no government agency routinely publishes national estimates of military spouse employment based on either the CPS or ACS.

Filling the Gap 

The MOAA has stepped in to the 
vacuum and is doing its own survey.

Private researchers in theory could potentially fill in the gap through interpolation with estimates based on multiple databases and sampling of data within existing surveys. To our knowledge only the RAND Corporation has made attempts in this direction - most recently in a 2012 Occasional Paper. Also of interest is RAND's 2010 report Measuring Underemployment Among Military Spouses, which compares active duty spouses to their civilian counterparts.

There is an opportunity here for new research. The objective would be to develop an estimating algorithm that would permit the generation of monthly data.

(This blogpost was developed from a memo on the topic by Alex Hecht.)

Unemployment Fell in September for Female Vets, But Not Male Vets

During the last year - higher rate of
unemployment of male vets.

Based on data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning, as of September more jobs are being found by male veterans who did not serve in wartime. Also by male non-veterans.

But those who served in wartime are not having such luck. Their unemployment rates during the last year ending in September have been rising for every period of service.

The good news is that the level of unemployment is lower among male vets than the non-veteran population, although (1) this is not true for the youngest vets, the Gulf War II cohort, and (2) some part of the explanation is not such good news, i.e., the portion of veterans whose service-related disabilities have forced them out of the labor force.

During the past year, the unemployment rate of wartime male veterans has increased for every period of service. It has declined from 6 percent to 5.1 percent for male veterans of non-wartime service. It has also declined for non-veterans.

Unemployment Rate % - Men Vets by Service vs. Non-Vets (BLS Table A-5) Source: BLS Household Survey for September 2013, released October 22, 2013.

Women vets from both Gulf Wars, and

those who did not serve in wartime, and

non-veteran women, have all been finding

more jobs during the last year. Older women vets

have not.

Female veterans below a certain age are faring much better. For those who served in either of the two Gulf War period, their unemployment rates have come down substantially during the past year. Those who served in Gulf War I are particularly fortunate, with an unemployment rate that fell from 19.9 percent to 11.6 percent. The improvement is also true for women vets who did not serve in wartime, and for non-veterans.

However, older women vets who served in WWII or the Korean or Vietnam wars have not seen the same improvement in their job-seeking success. Their unemployment rate rose slightly.

Unemployment Rate % - Women Vets by Service

vs. Non-Vets (BLS Table A-5) Source: BLS Household Survey for September 2013, released October 22, 2013.